Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 19:23, is the safest bet: 49% chance of reaching Anchorage on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 411 Delta Flight history →	MSP 22:13	ANC 00:59	18%	5%	0.7%	73%
DL 377 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:10	ANC 21:00	23%	6%	0.7%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 3 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 07:05 → IAH 09:59DL 2656	1h 33m Houston	IAH 11:32 → ANC 15:52DL 8960	11h 47m	96%	74%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	2h 41m Seattle	SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928	10h 20m	99%	72%
Alaska Details →	MSP 06:03 → SEA 07:58AS 387	3h 53m Seattle	SEA 11:51 → ANC 14:34AS 1333	11h 31m	99%	70%
American Details →	MSP 10:11 → DFW 12:44AA 2220	2h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:08 → ANC 19:09AA 399	11h 58m	98%	69%
Alaska Details →	MSP 14:56 → SEA 16:50AS 555	2h 17m Seattle	SEA 19:07 → ANC 21:41AS 582	9h 45m	97%	68%
Alaska Details →	MSP 19:23 → SEA 21:05AS 510	1h 47m Seattle	SEA 22:52 → ANC 01:25 +1AS 703	9h 02m	94%	62%
United Details →	MSP 11:32 → ORD 13:15UA 576	2h 47m Chicago	ORD 16:02 → ANC 19:05UA 461	10h 33m	97%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON