Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 3950 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 3950 MSP 07:00 → AUS 09:55 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest DL 2749 MSP 19:45 → AUS 22:25 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3950 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 07:00	AUS 09:55	13%	3%	0.6%	78%
DL 2062 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:10	AUS 12:50	14%	2%	0.6%	83%
WN 1077 Southwest	MSP 11:05	AUS 13:55	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2687 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:10	AUS 18:04	21%	5%	0.7%	81%
DL 2749 Delta Flight history →	MSP 19:45	AUS 22:25	25%	7%	0.8%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON