Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Asheville on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Asheville is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → AVL 13:25DL 1182	7h 05m	99%	84%
American Details →	MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894	3h 13m Charlotte	CLT 13:13 → AVL 14:19AA 6112 · flown by Piedmont	7h 00m	99%	84%
United Details →	MSP 05:25 → DEN 06:33UA 2041	3h 06m Denver	DEN 09:39 → AVL 14:36UA 1992	8h 11m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → AVL 14:40DL 3099	6h 40m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 16:11 → AVL 17:19DL 3101	5h 47m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:05DL 1036	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 22:46 → AVL 23:46DL 3116	5h 28m	95%	69%
Delta Details →	MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 19:37 → AVL 20:41DL 3071	6h 56m	98%	67%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:05 → LGA 13:45DL 2764	2h 59m New York	LGA 16:44 → AVL 19:00DL 4665 · flown by Endeavor	7h 56m	99%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON