Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 2941 at 22:20, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2941 Delta Flight history →	MSP 22:20	BIL 23:30	26%	9%	1.5%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Billings on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Billings is 1 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MSP 05:25 → DEN 06:33UA 2041	1h 22m Denver	DEN 07:55 → BIL 09:36UA 4762 · flown by SkyWest	5h 11m	97%	83%
American Details →	MSP 06:00 → DFW 08:33AA 1395	2h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:41 → BIL 12:38AA 4095 · flown by Envoy	7h 38m	97%	80%
Alaska Details →	MSP 06:03 → SEA 07:58AS 387	2h 11m Seattle	SEA 10:09 → BIL 13:05AS 2054 · flown by Horizon	8h 02m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651	2h 06m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:25 → BIL 17:52DL 3828 · flown by SkyWest	6h 23m	97%	78%
United Details →	MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891	1h 24m Denver	DEN 11:45 → BIL 13:22UA 703	5h 17m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	MSP 18:13 → SLC 20:07DL 2607	1h 18m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:25 → BIL 22:50DL 1340	5h 37m	87%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305	47m Denver	DEN 15:35 → BIL 17:19UA 5498 · flown by SkyWest	4h 43m	68%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON