Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2982 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:39	BOI 13:44	15%	4%	0.6%	86%
DL 2488 Delta Flight history →	MSP 21:40	BOI 23:46	24%	7%	0.7%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boise on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boise is 1 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MSP 05:25 → DEN 06:33UA 2041	1h 04m Denver	DEN 07:37 → BOI 09:40UA 255	5h 15m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	1h 37m Atlanta	ATL 10:31 → BOI 12:53DL 874	8h 33m	98%	86%
Alaska Details →	MSP 14:56 → SEA 16:50AS 555	3h 09m Seattle	SEA 19:59 → BOI 22:24AS 2034 · flown by Horizon	8h 28m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MSP 07:06 → LAX 09:00DL 2110	2h 44m Los Angeles	LAX 11:44 → BOI 14:46DL 3773 · flown by SkyWest	8h 40m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	3h 10m Seattle	SEA 16:10 → BOI 18:46DL 3688 · flown by SkyWest	8h 36m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	1h 31m Seattle	SEA 12:30 → BOI 15:11DL 3959 · flown by SkyWest	7h 06m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	2h 40m Seattle	SEA 19:40 → BOI 22:18DL 3692 · flown by SkyWest	8h 03m	98%	83%
American Details →	MSP 14:52 → PHX 16:20AA 408	2h 32m Phoenix	PHX 18:52 → BOI 22:11AA 4952 · flown by SkyWest	8h 19m	100%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	MSP 14:56 → SEA 16:50AS 555	50m Seattle	SEA 17:40 → BOI 20:07AS 2109 · flown by Horizon	6h 11m	66%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON