Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 1749 at 15:22, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1749 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:22	BUF 18:24	18%	6%	0.7%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 10:05 → LGA 13:45DL 2764	2h 30m New York	LGA 16:15 → BUF 17:44DL 5792 · flown by Republic	6h 39m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	MSP 16:15 → DTW 18:59DL 1476	3h 51m Detroit	DTW 22:50 → BUF 23:58DL 978	6h 43m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	MSP 06:55 → JFK 10:39DL 2969	2h 50m New York	JFK 13:29 → BUF 15:09DL 5296 · flown by Endeavor	7h 14m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266	8h 03m	99%	77%
American Details →	MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894	3h 05m Charlotte	CLT 13:05 → BUF 14:54AA 2442	7h 35m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 16:33 → BUF 18:41DL 2050	7h 09m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	MSP 07:05 → LGA 10:44DL 2719	1h 34m New York	LGA 12:18 → BUF 13:50DL 5362 · flown by Endeavor	5h 46m	97%	72%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	2h 41m Chicago	ORD 10:25 → BUF 13:13UA 4382 · flown by GoJet	6h 13m	99%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:05DL 1036	47m Atlanta	ATL 21:52 → BUF 23:59DL 2334	5h 41m	67%	48%
United Details →	MSP 15:16 → ORD 16:58UA 1531	59m Chicago	ORD 17:57 → BUF 20:35UA 1335	4h 19m	56%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON