Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4653 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 4653 MSP 05:20 → BWI 08:52 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2918 MSP 19:45 → BWI 23:13 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4653 Southwest	MSP 05:20	BWI 08:52	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 2357 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:10	BWI 10:42	7%	2%	0.7%	93%
DL 2565 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:45	BWI 18:19	18%	5%	0.7%	63%
WN 1685 Southwest	MSP 16:35	BWI 20:07	20%	9%	0.9%	no record
DL 2918 Delta Flight history →	MSP 19:45	BWI 23:13	21%	6%	0.9%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON