Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2946 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:57	BZN 12:33	9%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 2954 Delta Flight history →	MSP 22:23	BZN 23:52	18%	5%	0.7%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BZN 13:11DL 406	8h 51m	99%	83%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	1h 26m Chicago	ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44UA 224	6h 44m	98%	81%
United Details →	MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891	1h 31m Denver	DEN 11:52 → BZN 13:49UA 741	5h 44m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651	3h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	7h 15m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	2h 59m Seattle	SEA 19:59 → BZN 22:49DL 4039 · flown by SkyWest	8h 34m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	MSP 18:13 → SLC 20:07DL 2607	2h 58m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046	7h 10m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	1h 18m Seattle	SEA 12:17 → BZN 15:14DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest	7h 09m	94%	75%
United Details →	MSP 11:32 → ORD 13:15UA 576	3h 30m Chicago	ORD 16:45 → BZN 19:03UA 1920	8h 31m	98%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON