Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day 9E 5546 MSP 09:11 → CID 10:23 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 4906 MSP 14:55 → CID 16:08 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


9E 5546 Endeavor	MSP 09:11	CID 10:23	9%	2%	1.4%	no record
9E 5448 Endeavor	MSP 10:11	CID 11:23	10%	3%	1.3%	no record
DL 5290 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MSP 22:15	CID 23:27	13%	5%	2.2%	72%
DL 4906 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MSP 14:55	CID 16:08	13%	4%	1.5%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON