Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1083 at 07:11 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 1083 MSP 07:11 → CLE 10:08 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1392 MSP 20:51 → CLE 23:44 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1083 Delta	MSP 07:11	CLE 10:08	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1118 Delta	MSP 15:38	CLE 18:36	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 4048 SkyWest	MSP 10:12	CLE 13:06	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 1392 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:51	CLE 23:44	21%	6%	0.7%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON