tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 05:25, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Colorado Springs on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Colorado Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Colorado Springs is 1 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:25 → DEN 06:33UA 2041 1h 12m Denver DEN 07:45 → COS 08:41UA 5246 · flown by SkyWest 4h 16m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307 1h 22m Chicago ORD 09:06 → COS 11:09UA 1082 6h 09m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651 1h 32m Salt Lake City SLC 15:51 → COS 17:35DL 4449 · flown by SkyWest 6h 06m 94% 78%
DeltaDetails → MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039 58m Atlanta ATL 11:30 → COS 12:32DL 2427 6h 32m 92% 76%
AmericanDetails → MSP 06:00 → DFW 08:33AA 1395 3h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:43 → COS 12:52AA 6390 · flown by SkyWest 7h 52m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891 1h 09m Denver DEN 11:30 → COS 12:19UA 738 4h 14m 94% 72%
UnitedDetails → MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305 2h 07m Denver DEN 16:55 → COS 17:52UA 5308 · flown by SkyWest 5h 16m 97% 60%
AmericanDetails → MSP 10:11 → DFW 12:44AA 2220 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:40 → COS 14:42AA 1170 5h 31m 83% 57%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MSP 18:13 → SLC 20:07DL 2607 52m Salt Lake City SLC 20:59 → COS 22:41DL 3788 · flown by SkyWest 5h 28m 64% 52%
UnitedDetails → MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305 47m Denver DEN 15:35 → COS 16:32UA 5546 · flown by SkyWest 3h 56m 68% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON