Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1395 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 1395 MSP 06:00 → DFW 08:33 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest F9 3223 MSP 18:49 → DFW 21:28 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1395 American Flight history →	MSP 06:00	DFW 08:33	9%	4%	1.0%	87%
DL 2972 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:54	DFW 10:23	12%	3%	0.7%	86%
AA 1654 American	MSP 08:08	DFW 10:44	12%	5%	0.8%	no record
DL 2970 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:03	DFW 12:29	14%	4%	0.7%	83%
AA 2220 American Flight history →	MSP 10:11	DFW 12:44	15%	7%	0.8%	80%
DL 2967 Delta Flight history →	MSP 19:50	DFW 22:21	20%	7%	0.8%	76%
DL 2971 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:47	DFW 17:16	22%	6%	0.7%	76%
AA 1668 American	MSP 15:13	DFW 17:45	25%	10%	0.9%	no record
AA 2406 American Flight history →	MSP 22:06	DFW 00:26	29%	8%	1.1%	64%
F9 3223 Frontier Flight history →	MSP 18:49	DFW 21:28	31%	11%	1.4%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON