Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 06:03, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching Fairbanks on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fairbanks on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 3 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	MSP 06:03 → SEA 07:58AS 387	1h 57m Seattle	SEA 09:55 → FAI 12:46AS 441	9h 43m	98%	68%
Alaska Details →	MSP 14:56 → SEA 16:50AS 555	2h 38m Seattle	SEA 19:28 → FAI 22:01AS 284	10h 05m	98%	63%
Alaska Details →	MSP 19:23 → SEA 21:05AS 510	1h 38m Seattle	SEA 22:43 → FAI 01:21 +1AS 351	8h 58m	94%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MSP 18:55 → SEA 20:48DL 881	53m Seattle	SEA 21:41 → FAI 00:30 +1DL 2186	8h 35m	62%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON