Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 3888 at 09:18 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–22%.

Safest bet that day OO 3888 MSP 09:18 → FSD 10:27 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1694 MSP 22:05 → FSD 23:06 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3888 SkyWest	MSP 09:18	FSD 10:27	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 3890 SkyWest	MSP 14:35	FSD 15:44	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 3763 SkyWest	MSP 11:23	FSD 12:22	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 3905 SkyWest	MSP 18:33	FSD 19:42	18%	8%	1.4%	no record
DL 1694 Delta Flight history →	MSP 22:05	FSD 23:06	22%	8%	0.8%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON