Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via O'Hare, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 312 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:10	HNL 13:43	12%	2%	0.6%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 5 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461	1h 43m Detroit	DTW 10:30 → HNL 14:07DL 307	13h 03m	99%	83%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	2h 05m Chicago	ORD 09:49 → HNL 13:42UA 219	12h 42m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	56m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837	13h 00m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628	1h 46m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316	11h 09m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	MSP 13:09 → LAX 15:03DL 2974	3h 34m Los Angeles	LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22DL 443	13h 13m	100%	75%
United Details →	MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891	1h 39m Denver	DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384	11h 08m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	2h 45m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465	12h 23m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	3h 35m Seattle	SEA 16:35 → HNL 19:53DL 419	13h 43m	100%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON