Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 4680 at 13:14, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4680 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MSP 13:14	HPN 16:56	16%	5%	0.8%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach White Plains on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (White Plains is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461	1h 43m Detroit	DTW 10:30 → HPN 12:20DL 4645 · flown by Endeavor	5h 16m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433	2h 41m Detroit	DTW 14:23 → HPN 16:13DL 4658 · flown by Endeavor	6h 13m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 12:10 → HPN 14:36DL 5435 · flown by Endeavor	8h 16m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 15:50 → HPN 18:16DL 5013 · flown by Endeavor	8h 50m	100%	75%
Delta Details →	MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 19:59 → HPN 22:25DL 1616	8h 40m	99%	73%
American Details →	MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894	1h 06m Charlotte	CLT 11:06 → HPN 13:13AA 5180 · flown by PSA	5h 54m	92%	71%
American Details →	MSP 10:31 → ORD 12:16AA 4162 · flown by Envoy	1h 28m Chicago	ORD 13:44 → HPN 17:04AA 4112 · flown by Envoy	5h 33m	92%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON