tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 3807 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → MSP 13:23 ICT 15:15 18% 5% 0.6% 90%
OO 3787 SkyWest MSP 20:11 ICT 22:02 21% 6% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wichita on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:25 → DEN 06:33UA 2041 3h 22m Denver DEN 09:55 → ICT 12:27UA 5497 · flown by SkyWest 7h 02m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 11:14 → ICT 12:34DL 828 7h 14m 99% 83%
AlaskaDetails → MSP 06:03 → SEA 07:58AS 387 1h 08m Seattle SEA 09:06 → ICT 14:34AS 2117 · flown by Horizon 8h 31m 94% 76%
DeltaDetails → MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 16:31 → ICT 17:47DL 2128 7h 15m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891 3h 38m Denver DEN 13:59 → ICT 16:34UA 5454 · flown by SkyWest 7h 29m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307 1h 08m Chicago ORD 08:52 → ICT 11:12UA 4809 · flown by SkyWest 5h 12m 97% 75%
AmericanDetails → MSP 06:00 → DFW 08:33AA 1395 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:31 → ICT 10:55AA 4142 · flown by Envoy 4h 55m 90% 74%
UnitedDetails → MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305 2h 51m Denver DEN 17:39 → ICT 20:11UA 1788 6h 35m 99% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MSP 19:04 → ORD 20:37UA 1237 1h 08m Chicago ORD 21:45 → ICT 23:47UA 424 4h 43m 58% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON