tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 05:25, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Jackson on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jackson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jackson is 1 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:25 → DEN 06:33UA 2041 1h 32m Denver DEN 08:05 → JAC 09:46UA 5730 · flown by SkyWest 5h 21m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628 1h 11m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → JAC 12:15DL 2282 5h 05m 95% 81%
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891 3h 34m Denver DEN 13:55 → JAC 15:25UA 1537 7h 20m 100% 75%
DeltaDetails → MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651 1h 19m Salt Lake City SLC 15:38 → JAC 16:45DL 509 5h 16m 93% 74%
UnitedDetails → MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307 1h 10m Chicago ORD 08:54 → JAC 11:10UA 2176 6h 10m 97% 72%
DeltaDetails → MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 18:10 → JAC 20:04DL 315 8h 19m 94% 69%
DeltaDetails → MSP 14:25 → SLC 16:16DL 2658 2h 14m Salt Lake City SLC 18:30 → JAC 19:37DL 4025 · flown by SkyWest 6h 12m 98% 68%
UnitedDetails → MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305 1h 32m Denver DEN 16:20 → JAC 17:53UA 2200 5h 17m 94% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON