Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 2392 at 12:57, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2392 Delta Flight history →	MSP 12:57	JAX 16:54	12%	3%	0.7%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433	3h 20m Detroit	DTW 15:02 → JAX 17:27DL 2994	7h 27m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 10:48 → JAX 12:00DL 2923	5h 40m	98%	85%
United Details →	MSP 05:25 → DEN 06:33UA 2041	3h 32m Denver	DEN 10:05 → JAX 15:39UA 1451	9h 14m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:05 → BOS 13:51DL 2655	1h 44m Boston	BOS 15:35 → JAX 18:41DL 5657 · flown by Republic	7h 36m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 12:37 → JAX 13:45DL 3024	5h 45m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	MSP 06:55 → JFK 10:39DL 2969	3h 16m New York	JFK 13:55 → JAX 16:44DL 1035	8h 49m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 13:53 → JAX 15:05DL 2990	5h 39m	99%	79%
United Details →	MSP 07:35 → IAH 10:30UA 2460	1h 40m Houston	IAH 12:10 → JAX 15:37UA 4048 · flown by Mesa	7h 02m	95%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MSP 17:47 → CLT 21:16AA 2140	1h 05m Charlotte	CLT 22:21 → JAX 23:52AA 3078	5h 05m	73%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON