Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2261 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–37%.

Safest bet that day DL 2261 MSP 07:05 → LAS 08:25 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 4745 MSP 19:48 → LAS 21:20 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2261 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:05	LAS 08:25	8%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 2262 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:13	LAS 10:31	11%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 2238 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:10	LAS 12:26	15%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 1542 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:51	LAS 16:10	24%	5%	0.7%	86%worse than usual
DL 1442 Delta Flight history →	MSP 21:55	LAS 23:16	29%	6%	0.8%	80%
DL 2246 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:59	LAS 20:20	31%	7%	0.8%	69%
F9 4745 Frontier	MSP 19:48	LAS 21:20	37%	13%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON