Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2719 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 2719 MSP 07:05 → LGA 10:44 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 2732 MSP 15:30 → LGA 19:18 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2719 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:05	LGA 10:44	7%	3%	0.8%	89%
DL 2764 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:05	LGA 13:45	13%	4%	0.8%	83%
DL 2756 Delta Flight history →	MSP 13:00	LGA 16:49	17%	5%	0.8%	77%
DL 2733 Delta Flight history →	MSP 19:58	LGA 23:40	18%	6%	1.0%	77%
DL 2732 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:30	LGA 19:18	22%	7%	0.7%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON