Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1349 at 09:57 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 1349 MSP 09:57 → MCI 11:29 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1657 MSP 21:30 → MCI 22:58 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1349 Delta	MSP 09:57	MCI 11:29	9%	2%	1.1%	no record
DL 1613 Delta Flight history →	MSP 13:45	MCI 15:14	15%	4%	0.9%	88%
DL 1657 Delta Flight history →	MSP 21:30	MCI 22:58	29%	7%	0.7%	76%
DL 4867 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 06:55	MCI 08:33	16%	4%	0.0%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON