tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 2695 at 12:45, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2695 Delta Flight history → MSP 12:45 MSY 15:25 16% 3% 1.8% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:25 → DEN 06:33UA 2041 3h 17m Denver DEN 09:50 → MSY 13:39UA 2273 8h 14m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542 6h 17m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → MSY 14:20DL 3157 7h 20m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → MSP 07:35 → IAH 10:30UA 2460 1h 25m Houston IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385 5h 39m 95% 77%
DeltaDetails → MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 15:02 → MSY 15:44DL 8858 7h 18m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307 2h 57m Chicago ORD 10:41 → MSY 13:07UA 1532 7h 07m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894 1h 51m Charlotte CLT 11:51 → MSY 12:57AA 2030 6h 38m 97% 73%
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891 3h 20m Denver DEN 13:41 → MSY 17:25UA 250 8h 20m 100% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON