Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: American via Charlotte, leaving 06:19, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Myrtle Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Myrtle Beach is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894	1h 20m Charlotte	CLT 11:20 → MYR 12:36AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont	5h 17m	94%	85%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00DL 3182	6h 40m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 17:48 → MYR 19:07DL 1093	7h 35m	99%	69%
Delta Details →	MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:05DL 1036	1h 35m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → MYR 23:55DL 3074	5h 37m	94%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON