Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 3831 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 3831 MSP 08:50 → OMA 10:12 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 4014 MSP 21:30 → OMA 22:48 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3831 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 08:50	OMA 10:12	9%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 3838 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 10:39	OMA 11:57	13%	6%	0.6%	72%
DL 4024 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 18:25	OMA 19:47	24%	9%	0.9%	71%
DL 4014 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 21:30	OMA 22:48	25%	9%	1.8%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON