Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5518 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 19:55	ORF 23:47	36%	11%	1.2%	64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461	1h 14m Detroit	DTW 10:01 → ORF 11:57DL 3066	4h 53m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 12:28 → ORF 14:14DL 2925	7h 54m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	MSP 16:15 → DTW 18:59DL 1476	2h 41m Detroit	DTW 21:40 → ORF 23:32DL 412	6h 17m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 13:53 → ORF 15:34DL 1101	7h 34m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:05 → BOS 13:51DL 2655	1h 19m Boston	BOS 15:10 → ORF 17:09DL 5858 · flown by Republic	6h 04m	93%	81%
Delta Details →	MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:05DL 1036	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 23:45 → ORF 01:19 +1DL 2338	7h 01m	99%	78%
American Details →	MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894	1h 30m Charlotte	CLT 11:30 → ORF 12:52AA 1323	5h 33m	95%	74%
American Details →	MSP 06:00 → DFW 08:33AA 1395	1h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:14 → ORF 14:29AA 2282	7h 29m	96%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON