Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2688 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 2688 MSP 07:10 → PHL 10:44 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 3294 MSP 15:54 → PHL 19:47 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2688 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:10	PHL 10:44	6%	2%	0.7%	91%
AA 1481 American	MSP 06:00	PHL 09:45	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 2679 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:09	PHL 14:43	10%	3%	0.7%	85%
DL 2594 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:25	PHL 18:04	18%	6%	0.7%	76%
OH 5347 PSA	MSP 12:11	PHL 16:01	19%	8%	1.6%	no record
DL 2703 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:25	PHL 23:56	21%	7%	1.1%	77%
AA 3294 American Flight history →	MSP 15:54	PHL 19:47	26%	13%	0.7%	86%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON