Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3093 at 09:10 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 3093 MSP 09:10 → PHX 10:33 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2297 MSP 18:48 → PHX 20:06 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3093 Southwest	MSP 09:10	PHX 10:33	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1047 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:26	PHX 08:37	12%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 2208 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:28	PHX 10:43	14%	3%	0.6%	77%
DL 2274 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:32	PHX 12:46	16%	4%	0.6%	81%
DL 2284 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:54	PHX 16:09	21%	6%	0.7%	82%
SY 605 Sun Country	MSP 11:01	PHX 12:20	22%	5%	1.2%	no record
SY 607 Sun Country	MSP 14:01	PHX 15:19	24%	7%	1.2%	no record
AA 408 American Flight history →	MSP 14:52	PHX 16:20	27%	8%	0.8%	92%worse than usual
DL 2297 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:48	PHX 20:06	28%	9%	0.8%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON