Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 845 at 07:29 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 845 MSP 07:29 → PIT 10:33 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 1134 MSP 19:51 → PIT 22:54 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 845 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:29	PIT 10:33	6%	2%	0.5%	89%
OO 3970 SkyWest	MSP 15:52	PIT 18:57	15%	7%	0.5%	no record
DL 1134 Delta	MSP 19:51	PIT 22:54	16%	7%	0.6%	no record
DL 4971 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 13:07	PIT 16:23	27%	10%	1.7%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON