Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:04, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Providence on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Providence on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Providence is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461	1h 36m Detroit	DTW 10:23 → PVD 12:19DL 3723 · flown by SkyWest	5h 15m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → PVD 12:29DL 2147	6h 09m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 14:02 → PVD 16:29DL 2314	7h 03m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 17:40 → PVD 20:09DL 2659	8h 37m	99%	79%
American Details →	MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894	3h 43m Charlotte	CLT 13:43 → PVD 15:50AA 2679	8h 31m	99%	78%
American Details →	MSP 15:54 → PHL 19:47AA 3294	1h 02m Philadelphia	PHL 20:49 → PVD 22:15AA 3142	5h 21m	76%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON