Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 5063 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MSP 09:58	RIC 13:32	10%	4%	0.9%	69%
DL 5530 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MSP 20:34	RIC 00:06	18%	7%	1.6%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → RIC 11:56DL 2650	5h 36m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433	2h 43m Detroit	DTW 14:25 → RIC 16:06DL 3073	6h 06m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 12:31 → RIC 14:12DL 3152	6h 12m	98%	83%
United Details →	MSP 05:25 → DEN 06:33UA 2041	2h 59m Denver	DEN 09:32 → RIC 14:56UA 724	8h 31m	100%	81%
United Details →	MSP 07:35 → IAH 10:30UA 2460	1h 35m Houston	IAH 12:05 → RIC 16:16UA 4057 · flown by Mesa	7h 41m	95%	77%
Delta Details →	MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:05DL 1036	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 23:33 → RIC 01:11 +1DL 1175	6h 53m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 15:45 → RIC 17:26DL 1214	8h 00m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	MSP 15:15 → BOS 19:11DL 2591	2h 19m Boston	BOS 21:30 → RIC 23:32DL 5676 · flown by Republic	7h 17m	93%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MSP 15:16 → ORD 16:58UA 1531	1h 12m Chicago	ORD 18:10 → RIC 21:27UA 1583	5h 11m	72%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON