tailodds FORECAST
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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via LAX, leaving 07:06, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Reno on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSP 07:06 → LAX 09:00DL 2110 3h 58m Los Angeles LAX 12:58 → RNO 14:25DL 3902 · flown by SkyWest 9h 19m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628 1h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595 5h 59m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119 3h 27m Los Angeles LAX 16:50 → RNO 18:21DL 4126 · flown by SkyWest 8h 51m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651 1h 56m Salt Lake City SLC 16:15 → RNO 16:52DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest 6h 23m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → MSP 18:13 → SLC 20:07DL 2607 3h 13m Salt Lake City SLC 23:20 → RNO 23:47DL 1607 7h 34m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891 59m Denver DEN 11:20 → RNO 12:39UA 2167 5h 34m 90% 71%
DeltaDetails → MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 19:57 → RNO 21:42DL 391 10h 57m 99% 67%
AlaskaDetails → MSP 06:03 → SEA 07:58AS 387 3h 47m Seattle SEA 11:45 → RNO 13:31AS 601 9h 28m 99% 65%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON