Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AS 387 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–28%.

Safest bet that day AS 387 MSP 06:03 → SEA 07:58 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AS 510 MSP 19:23 → SEA 21:05 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 387 Alaska Flight history →	MSP 06:03	SEA 07:58	9%	2%	0.9%	85%
DL 868 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:05	SEA 10:59	11%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 889 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:10	SEA 13:00	13%	2%	0.8%	87%
AS 555 Alaska Flight history →	MSP 14:56	SEA 16:50	21%	4%	1.0%	78%
DL 505 Delta Flight history →	MSP 22:08	SEA 23:58	21%	6%	0.8%	83%
DL 877 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:15	SEA 17:00	22%	5%	0.8%	75%
DL 881 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:55	SEA 20:48	25%	5%	0.8%	75%
AS 510 Alaska Flight history →	MSP 19:23	SEA 21:05	28%	7%	1.0%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON