Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1701 at 10:24 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1701 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:24	SMF 12:09	14%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 574 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:45	SMF 20:35	27%	7%	0.7%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MSP 05:25 → DEN 06:33UA 2041	1h 27m Denver	DEN 08:00 → SMF 09:35UA 2149	6h 10m	97%	88%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	1h 20m Chicago	ORD 09:04 → SMF 11:51UA 2145	7h 51m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	MSP 13:10 → LAX 15:04DL 2974	3h 37m Los Angeles	LAX 18:41 → SMF 20:10DL 3759 · flown by SkyWest	9h 00m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628	1h 36m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	6h 06m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	3h 25m Seattle	SEA 20:25 → SMF 22:31DL 4131 · flown by SkyWest	9h 16m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119	3h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 16:38 → SMF 18:11DL 3712 · flown by SkyWest	8h 41m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	3h 41m Seattle	SEA 14:40 → SMF 16:39DL 4153 · flown by SkyWest	9h 34m	99%	79%
United Details →	MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891	1h 31m Denver	DEN 11:52 → SMF 13:36UA 2673	6h 31m	97%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	MSP 19:23 → SEA 21:05AS 510	51m Seattle	SEA 21:56 → SMF 23:50AS 722	6h 27m	66%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON