tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 05:25, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2081 Delta Flight history → MSP 11:00 SNA 12:54 19% 4% 0.7% 73%
DL 2107 Delta Flight history → MSP 18:28 SNA 20:20 27% 7% 0.8% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:25 → DEN 06:33UA 2041 1h 07m Denver DEN 07:40 → SNA 09:07UA 2666 5h 42m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → MSP 07:35 → IAH 10:30UA 2460 2h 03m Houston IAH 12:33 → SNA 14:20UA 1533 8h 45m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891 3h 04m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:56UA 1707 7h 51m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877 2h 36m Seattle SEA 19:36 → SNA 22:28DL 3695 · flown by SkyWest 9h 13m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307 56m Chicago ORD 08:40 → SNA 11:21UA 1304 7h 21m 92% 74%
AlaskaDetails → MSP 14:56 → SEA 16:50AS 555 2h 05m Seattle SEA 18:55 → SNA 21:46AS 631 8h 50m 97% 73%
DeltaDetails → MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 9h 11m 98% 73%
AlaskaDetails → MSP 06:03 → SEA 07:58AS 387 3h 08m Seattle SEA 11:06 → SNA 13:55AS 1357 9h 52m 99% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MSP 18:13 → SLC 20:07DL 2607 58m Salt Lake City SLC 21:05 → SNA 22:00DL 1304 5h 47m 73% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON