Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 3995 at 10:24, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3995 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 10:24	TVC 12:54	12%	4%	0.6%	81%
DL 4915 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 15:25	TVC 17:55	50%	26%	0.0%	50%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Traverse City is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	1h 16m Chicago	ORD 09:00 → TVC 11:37UA 4169 · flown by GoJet	4h 37m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MSP 16:15 → DTW 18:59DL 1476	4h 00m Detroit	DTW 22:59 → TVC 00:08 +1DL 2424	6h 53m	100%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MSP 19:04 → ORD 20:37UA 1237	49m Chicago	ORD 21:26 → TVC 23:37UA 2071	3h 33m	27%	11%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON