tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 5527 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record MSP 19:45 TYS 23:01 28% 13% 1.1% 72%
DL 5335 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record MSP 13:28 TYS 16:45 29% 15% 0.8% 71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Knoxville is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062 1h 16m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → TYS 11:10DL 1743 4h 50m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 13:52 → TYS 14:48DL 1148 6h 48m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → MSP 06:00 → DFW 08:33AA 1395 1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:40 → TYS 12:53AA 2544 5h 53m 93% 75%
DeltaDetails → MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 16:16 → TYS 17:16DL 2571 5h 44m 97% 74%
DeltaDetails → MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:05DL 1036 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → TYS 23:52DL 3072 5h 34m 95% 71%
DeltaDetails → MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 19:06 → TYS 20:08DL 5203 · flown by Endeavor 6h 26m 97% 70%
DeltaDetails → MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433 1h 57m Detroit DTW 13:39 → TYS 15:19DL 4698 · flown by Endeavor 5h 19m 98% 70%
DeltaDetails → MSP 07:05 → LGA 10:44DL 2719 3h 36m New York LGA 14:20 → TYS 16:38DL 5455 · flown by Endeavor 8h 33m 100% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MSP 15:16 → ORD 16:58UA 1531 1h 02m Chicago ORD 18:00 → TYS 20:40UA 795 4h 24m 61% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON