tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, SY 1813 at 13:35, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
SY 1813 Sun Country MSP 13:35 VPS 16:20 14% 3% 1.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062 1h 21m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048 5h 09m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832 7h 00m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 15:43 → VPS 16:00DL 2170 7h 34m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:05DL 1036 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097 6h 11m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803 5h 57m 96% 79%
AmericanDetails → MSP 06:00 → DFW 08:33AA 1395 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:30 → VPS 11:28AA 2460 5h 28m 90% 69%
AmericanDetails → MSP 10:11 → DFW 12:44AA 2220 3h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:37 → VPS 18:38AA 2673 8h 27m 99% 60%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MSP 18:37 → ATL 22:28DL 1026 47m Atlanta ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097 4h 52m 64% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON