tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 3761 SkyWest MSP 09:10 XNA 11:10 13% 5% 0.7% no record
OO 3751 SkyWest MSP 14:18 XNA 16:18 16% 7% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:25 → DEN 06:33UA 2041 3h 17m Denver DEN 09:50 → XNA 12:47UA 5267 · flown by SkyWest 7h 22m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628 3h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 13:30 → XNA 17:14DL 3620 · flown by SkyWest 9h 04m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:05DL 1036 1h 58m Atlanta ATL 23:03 → XNA 00:04 +1DL 3747 · flown by SkyWest 6h 46m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 15:45 → XNA 16:41DL 5128 · flown by Endeavor 8h 15m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891 3h 09m Denver DEN 13:30 → XNA 16:25UA 5641 · flown by SkyWest 7h 20m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 17:14 → XNA 18:05DL 2771 7h 33m 99% 71%
DeltaDetails → MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 19:33 → XNA 20:31DL 1710 7h 46m 98% 71%
AmericanDetails → MSP 06:00 → DFW 08:33AA 1395 1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:37 → XNA 11:00AA 2025 5h 00m 93% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON