Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1547 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–46%.

Safest bet that day DL 1547 MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 2052 MSY 17:05 → ATL 19:45 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1547 Delta Flight history →	MSY 05:20	ATL 07:51	8%	3%	0.8%	92%
DL 1534 Delta Flight history →	MSY 06:20	ATL 08:57	9%	3%	0.7%	92%
DL 2522 Delta Flight history →	MSY 07:28	ATL 10:00	10%	3%	0.8%	90%
DL 3128 Delta Flight history →	MSY 09:13	ATL 11:43	12%	3%	0.8%	93%
DL 1424 Delta Flight history →	MSY 10:34	ATL 13:05	15%	3%	0.8%	92%
DL 2542 Delta Flight history →	MSY 12:42	ATL 15:16	19%	4%	0.9%	86%
DL 8858 Delta	MSY 16:32	ATL 19:10	28%	6%	1.2%	no record
DL 678 Delta	MSY 19:23	ATL 21:54	29%	7%	1.4%	no record
DL 3157 Delta Flight history →	MSY 15:25	ATL 18:04	31%	5%	1.0%	76%
DL 3146 Delta Flight history →	MSY 17:01	ATL 19:32	31%	7%	1.3%	84%worse than usual
WN 1739 Southwest	MSY 17:20	ATL 19:55	41%	12%	1.7%	no record
F9 2052 Frontier Flight history →	MSY 17:05	ATL 19:45	46%	17%	2.4%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON