Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3470 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 3470 MSY 06:40 → AUS 08:19 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1160 MSY 21:35 → AUS 23:15 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3470 Southwest	MSY 06:40	AUS 08:19	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 398 Southwest	MSY 10:40	AUS 12:19	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 4016 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSY 15:51	AUS 17:38	24%	8%	1.7%	78%
WN 651 Southwest	MSY 14:10	AUS 15:49	27%	6%	1.6%	no record
WN 3088 Southwest	MSY 16:30	AUS 18:09	28%	8%	1.4%	no record
WN 1160 Southwest	MSY 21:35	AUS 23:15	33%	9%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON