Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3090 at 07:52 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 3090 MSY 07:52 → BNA 09:34 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2008 MSY 18:10 → BNA 19:52 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3090 Southwest	MSY 07:52	BNA 09:34	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3121 Southwest	MSY 10:41	BNA 12:23	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2870 Southwest	MSY 14:06	BNA 15:48	26%	5%	1.3%	no record
WN 3126 Southwest	MSY 21:30	BNA 23:12	27%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 2763 Southwest	MSY 16:20	BNA 17:58	29%	6%	1.2%	no record
WN 2008 Southwest	MSY 18:10	BNA 19:52	34%	9%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON