Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 33–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1453 Delta	MSY 14:57	BOS 19:06	33%	9%	1.3%	no record
B6 400 JetBlue Flight history →	MSY 17:41	BOS 22:01	35%	14%	1.8%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855	6h 25m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862	6h 27m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MSY 07:28 → ATL 10:00DL 2522	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 12:22 → BOS 14:50DL 1293	6h 22m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 13:58 → BOS 16:44DL 726	6h 31m	97%	78%
United Details →	MSY 08:00 → IAD 11:33UA 1392	1h 30m Dulles	IAD 13:03 → BOS 14:48UA 1392	5h 48m	95%	77%
United Details →	MSY 07:00 → IAH 08:19UA 2124	1h 31m Houston	IAH 09:50 → BOS 14:48UA 2393	6h 48m	93%	76%
American Details →	MSY 07:01 → CLT 10:03AA 424	1h 17m Charlotte	CLT 11:20 → BOS 13:32AA 885	5h 31m	91%	75%
Delta Details →	MSY 15:25 → ATL 18:04DL 3157	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 21:00 → BOS 23:28DL 300	7h 03m	96%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MSY 16:30 → MSP 19:15DL 2695	54m Minneapolis	MSP 20:09 → BOS 23:55DL 2614	6h 25m	72%	55%
United Details →	MSY 15:42 → IAH 17:24UA 1532	51m Houston	IAH 18:15 → BOS 23:19UA 521	6h 37m	73%	53%
United Details →	MSY 14:19 → ORD 17:02UA 1301	1h 18m Chicago	ORD 18:20 → BOS 21:56UA 2331	6h 37m	71%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON