Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3103 at 09:25 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 3103 MSY 09:25 → DCA 13:02 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1788 MSY 17:14 → DCA 20:53 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3103 Southwest	MSY 09:25	DCA 13:02	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
OH 5274 PSA	MSY 10:06	DCA 13:47	19%	7%	2.3%	no record
AA 2586 American	MSY 13:57	DCA 17:48	28%	8%	2.1%	no record
WN 4029 Southwest	MSY 20:20	DCA 23:56	32%	10%	1.5%	no record
AA 1788 American Flight history →	MSY 17:14	DCA 20:53	40%	12%	2.6%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON