Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1293 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 1293 MSY 05:50 → DEN 07:37 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1092 MSY 18:15 → DEN 20:04 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1293 Southwest	MSY 05:50	DEN 07:37	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1376 United Flight history →	MSY 08:04	DEN 10:05	14%	4%	0.6%	86%
WN 4265 Southwest	MSY 10:59	DEN 12:46	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
F9 4561 Frontier Flight history →	MSY 10:42	DEN 12:40	25%	6%	1.4%	74%
UA 2216 United Flight history →	MSY 17:59	DEN 20:21	35%	9%	1.3%	84%worse than usual
UA 785 United	MSY 14:31	DEN 16:20	38%	10%	1.1%	no record
WN 1092 Southwest	MSY 18:15	DEN 20:04	43%	12%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON