Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 468 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–44%.

Safest bet that day AA 468 MSY 05:50 → DFW 07:40 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 2291 MSY 19:38 → DFW 21:17 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 468 American Flight history →	MSY 05:50	DFW 07:40	12%	4%	1.4%	87%
AA 1470 American Flight history →	MSY 07:42	DFW 09:35	18%	5%	1.2%	77%
AA 2157 American Flight history →	MSY 09:53	DFW 11:32	20%	6%	1.3%	76%
AA 1684 American	MSY 11:22	DFW 13:07	22%	8%	1.4%	no record
AA 1650 American	MSY 12:20	DFW 13:57	25%	8%	1.5%	no record
F9 4993 Frontier Flight history →	MSY 21:40	DFW 23:28	32%	14%	2.0%	64%
AA 2627 American	MSY 15:54	DFW 17:45	40%	11%	2.1%	no record
AA 1811 American	MSY 18:33	DFW 20:18	43%	13%	2.3%	no record
AA 2291 American Flight history →	MSY 19:38	DFW 21:17	44%	12%	2.1%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON