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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 2790 at 11:19, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2790 Delta Flight history → MSY 11:19 DTW 14:48 14% 3% 0.9% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240 6h 36m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MSY 07:28 → ATL 10:00DL 2522 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → DTW 15:55DL 1031 7h 27m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:27DL 1005 7h 14m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → MSY 12:42 → ATL 15:16DL 2542 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478 6h 31m 96% 74%
AmericanDetails → MSY 07:01 → CLT 10:03AA 424 1h 16m Charlotte CLT 11:19 → DTW 13:06AA 1683 5h 05m 90% 72%
AmericanDetails → MSY 09:00 → CLT 12:01AA 2287 2h 14m Charlotte CLT 14:15 → DTW 16:07AA 1134 6h 07m 97% 71%
AmericanDetails → MSY 05:50 → DFW 07:40AA 468 3h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:33 → DTW 15:24AA 690 8h 34m 97% 71%
UnitedDetails → MSY 07:00 → IAH 08:19UA 2124 1h 36m Houston IAH 09:55 → DTW 13:50UA 4064 · flown by Mesa 5h 50m 93% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MSY 17:01 → ATL 19:32DL 3146 58m Atlanta ATL 20:30 → DTW 22:33DL 1232 4h 32m 62% 45%
AmericanDetails → MSY 18:41 → CLT 21:42AA 2615 1h 09m Charlotte CLT 22:51 → DTW 00:41 +1AA 370 5h 00m 61% 40%
UnitedDetails → MSY 14:19 → ORD 17:02UA 1301 1h 05m Chicago ORD 18:07 → DTW 20:29UA 642 5h 10m 66% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON