Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4706 at 05:23 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 4706 MSY 05:23 → HOU 06:45 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3114 MSY 18:20 → HOU 19:42 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4706 Southwest	MSY 05:23	HOU 06:45	4%	1%	1.5%	no record
WN 3111 Southwest	MSY 08:23	HOU 09:45	7%	2%	1.1%	no record
WN 3144 Southwest	MSY 12:31	HOU 13:54	21%	4%	1.0%	no record
WN 3116 Southwest	MSY 22:10	HOU 23:32	22%	6%	0.9%	no record
WN 215 Southwest	MSY 15:20	HOU 16:43	27%	5%	1.7%	no record
WN 4376 Southwest	MSY 20:35	HOU 21:57	28%	7%	1.4%	no record
WN 3114 Southwest	MSY 18:20	HOU 19:42	31%	8%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON