tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1392 United Flight history → MSY 08:00 IAD 11:33 8% 3% 0.7% 93%
UA 2497 United Flight history → MSY 11:37 IAD 15:21 10% 4% 0.8% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 12:55 → IAD 14:39DL 2135 7h 19m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547 2h 03m Atlanta ATL 09:54 → IAD 11:41DL 1444 5h 21m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → MSY 09:53 → IAH 11:12UA 2105 3h 11m Houston IAH 14:23 → IAD 18:49UA 688 7h 56m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → MSY 07:00 → IAH 08:19UA 2124 1h 52m Houston IAH 10:11 → IAD 14:21UA 3910 6h 21m 95% 75%
DeltaDetails → MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → IAD 17:12DL 1695 6h 59m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → MSY 11:55 → IAH 13:13UA 2253 3h 22m Houston IAH 16:35 → IAD 20:46UA 2388 7h 51m 100% 75%
AmericanDetails → MSY 05:50 → DFW 07:40AA 468 2h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:09 → IAD 14:03AA 524 7h 13m 95% 74%
DeltaDetails → MSY 10:34 → ATL 13:05DL 1424 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:31DL 2902 6h 57m 98% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MSY 14:21 → IAH 15:40UA 2296 55m Houston IAH 16:35 → IAD 20:46UA 2388 5h 25m 75% 56%
AmericanDetails → MSY 18:41 → CLT 21:42AA 2615 53m Charlotte CLT 22:35 → IAD 00:07 +1AA 2608 4h 26m 53% 39%
UnitedDetails → MSY 14:19 → ORD 17:02UA 1301 1h 07m Chicago ORD 18:09 → IAD 21:18UA 2202 5h 59m 67% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON