Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 5365 at 05:13 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–23%.

Safest bet that day OO 5365 MSY 05:13 → IAH 06:41 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2124 MSY 07:00 → IAH 08:19 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5365 SkyWest	MSY 05:13	IAH 06:41	11%	5%	1.2%	no record
UA 2105 United Flight history →	MSY 09:53	IAH 11:12	14%	5%	0.8%	90%
YV 6223 Mesa	MSY 19:17	IAH 20:56	15%	8%	2.4%	no record
UA 1532 United Flight history →	MSY 15:42	IAH 17:24	20%	8%	1.5%	81%
UA 2253 United Flight history →	MSY 11:55	IAH 13:13	21%	6%	0.8%	80%
UA 2296 United Flight history →	MSY 14:21	IAH 15:40	22%	7%	1.4%	85%
UA 2119 United	MSY 17:27	IAH 19:03	23%	10%	1.4%	no record
UA 2124 United Flight history →	MSY 07:00	IAH 08:19	26%	5%	1.0%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON